Friday, 18 November 2011

Kelowna Real Estate Housing Forecast for 2012 from BCREA

Hi All,

I am sure for many of you reading about Real Estate in the Kelowna area, your number one question is 'have we reached the bottom of the market and what is the forecast for 2012'.

In an attempt to help your with this, I have attached a copy of this months publication by the BC Real Estate Association, giving their thoughts.



BCREA Fourth Quarter Housing Forecast For the Central Okanagan November 2011

MLS® residential sales through the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board are estimated to edge down 1 per cent to 4,790 units this year.

While continuing low mortgage interest rates are underpinning the market by helping to maintain affordability and consumer purchasing power, slower economic and employment growth, consumer belt-tightening and more moderate net migration are providing some headwinds to housing demand.

In addition, many recreation and investment buyers are being diverted to the United States by relative bargains. Next year, we anticipate an improvement in consumer demand will be driven by stronger job growth locally and in Alberta, whose residents account for approximately 15 per cent of home sales in the Okanagan.

MLS® residential sales in 2012 are forecast to increase 5 per cent to 5,020 units.The average annual MLS® residential price is forecast to edge down 3 per cent to $382,000 this year, after increasing 4 per cent in 2009.

The inventory of active residential listings remains relatively high. This imbalance between supply and consumer demand is expected to keep home prices unchanged in 2012, albeit up 0.5 per cent to $384,000.

A significant accumulation of newly completed homes in the Kelowna market has hampered construction activity over the past two years. However, there are some nascent signs of recovery in the multi-family market, which have posted double-digit growth this year.

Nonetheless, total multi-family starts remain well below levels seen in years leading up to the 2009 recession. Single family starts, however, remain a source of weakness in the Kelowna construction market, down nearly 20 per cent year to-date. Overall, we expect total housing starts in Kelowna to decline 3 per cent this year, followed by slight pick-up in activity next year of 8 per cent.

To read the full report please view - http://www.bcrea.bc.ca/docs/economics-forecasts-and-presentations/housingforecast.pdf

“Copyright British Columbia Real Estate Association. Reprinted with permission.”

Kind Regards

Trish Cenci

Tel 250 864 1707

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